From Stacks to Circuits: A Regenerative Socio-Technical Roadmap for AI Infrastructure within Planetary Boundaries

Digital Circular Economy for Deep Tech AI Presentation

Han-Teng Liao & Karen Ang

2026-06-11

Han-Teng Liao & Karen Ang
ICE 2026 / Special Session 08: Digital Circular Economy

🧭 Section I: Introduction

The Unprecedented Scaling of Generative AI

  • Linear Efficiency Focus: “Electrons to Tokens” optimization
  • Performance Density: Prioritizing computational speed
  • Externalized Liabilities: Material and thermodynamic costs
  • Socio-Technical Tension: Disconnection from regional carrying capacities

Note: Welcome everyone. Today we look at the rapid scaling of Generative AI. The current industry standard is a linear, performance-at-all-costs paradigm. This approach focuses strictly on optimizing from electrons to tokens, but it completely externalizes major physical and ecological liabilities.

🧭 Section I: Introduction

The Collision with Physical Realities

  • Resource Strains: Intense energy and cooling water extraction
  • The Grid Paradox: Local infrastructure application caps
  • The Twin Transition: Merging digital innovation with material circularity
  • Core Hypothesis: RST frameworks can reconcile compute growth with environmental boundaries

Note: This intensive scaling creates a massive collision with physical reality. In places like Taiwan, regional power distribution grids are already capping data center power expansions due to severe supply imbalances. Our study explores how a Regenerative Socio-Technical framework can prevent these sudden infrastructure crashes.

📚 Section II: Literature Review

Deconstructing the 5-Layer Production Stack

  • L1 to L3: Energy, Chips, and Infrastructure layers
  • L4 to L5: AI Models and Application ecosystems
  • The Commoditization Trap: Treating power as a static utility input
  • The Jevons Paradox: Efficiency gains triggering non-linear demand spikes

Note: The dominant industry model treats the data center as a basic factory line. The problem with this five-layer stack architecture is that it treats energy as a static, infinite utility input. Under Jevons Paradox, making tokens cheaper simply triggers an explosion in total macro energy consumption.

📚 Section II: Literature Review

Semiconductor Facilities & The IEEE IRDS Lens

  • IEEE IRDS ESSF Guidelines: Facility-level resource parameters
  • Key Pillars: Water intensity, energy efficiency, and chemical safety
  • SSbD Framework: Safe and Sustainable by Design electronics
  • The Knowledge Gap: Merging real-time AI operation with static facility roadmaps

Note: To address this, we turn to the 2024 IEEE IRDS semiconductor facility roadmap. It details quantitative targets for water and chemical safety. However, a major knowledge gap persists: the industry lacks a way to bridge these static manufacturing parameters with live, operational AI workloads.

🛠️ Section III: Methodology

Repurposing Sustainable Production & Consumption (SPaC)

  • The Core Capital Loop: Extraction, Production, Distribution, Consumption, Investment
  • Ecological Ceiling: Enforcing biophysical limits at the core
  • Socio-Technical Governance: Centering “Values and Needs”
  • System Dynamics: Interconnecting operational loops with environmental boundaries

Note: Our methodology bridges this gap by repurposing the Sustainable Production and Consumption framework into a system dynamics model. This maps the lifecycle of compute into a Triple Bottom Line taxonomy, ensuring that the inner economic loops are structurally anchored by socio-technical governance and ecological limits.

🛠️ Section III: Methodology

Design Science & Case Sensitivity

  • Design Science Research: Information systems architecture development
  • Green Digital Deep Tech: Advanced engineering acting as systemic control loops
  • Empirical Grounding: Real-world metrics from regional power dynamics
  • Analytical Integration: Linking chip micro-telemetry to macro-systemic impacts

Note: We apply design science research principles to build a circular reference architecture. By analyzing the structural limits of high-performance hardware, we transform sustainability requirements into real-world engineering constraints rather than treating them as standard, retroactive corporate social responsibility checklists.

📊 Section IV: Findings

Upstream & Downstream Externalities

Layer Functional Domain Key Externalized Liability
L5 Applications Uncapped token demand generation
L4 Models Extreme memory capacity sprawl
L3 Infrastructure Cooling water depletion & grid volatility
L2 Chips Embodied carbon & short e-waste lifecycles
L1 Energy Extractive reliance on municipal grids

Note: Let’s review our architectural findings. When we audit the standard linear stack, we expose massive externalized liabilities across every layer. Application demand drives the Jevons paradox rebound effect, while infrastructure layers trigger severe cooling water depletion and unbuffered regional utility grid strain.

📊 Section IV: Findings

The Thermodynamic Micro-Architecture Bottleneck

  • The Memory Wall: Data transit bottlenecks between HBM and compute core
  • Minimum Operational Batch Threshold (\(B_{min}\)): \[B_{min} \geq \frac{\alpha \cdot N}{L \cdot d_{model}}\]
  • Arithmetic Underutilization: Sub-optimal batches draw peak baseline power
  • Metabolic Entropy: Idle hardware expending energy on memory-bus transfers

Note: The root of these environmental liabilities is actually found at the micro-architectural silicon layer. The memory wall forcing model weights between high-bandwidth memory and registers creates severe thermodynamic friction. Falling below the minimum operational batch threshold causes the hardware to waste high baseline power while idling.

📊 Section IV: Findings

The Context Horizon Memory Sprawl

  • Key-Value Cache Expansion (\(M_{KV}\)): \[M_{KV} = 2 \cdot B \cdot L \cdot h \cdot d_{byte}\]
  • Linear Biophysical Liability: Cache memory scales directly with context length
  • Hardware Fragmentation: Sharding models across clusters just to pool memory
  • Capacity Over-Provisioning: Low-concurrency regimes driving building booms

Note: This issue is amplified by long context windows, where Key-Value cache memory demands scale linearly. To accommodate this memory sprawl, operators are sharding workloads across massive, multi-GPU clusters purely to pool high-bandwidth memory space, resulting in low arithmetic utilization and intense resource consumption.

📊 Section IV: Findings

Connecting the Micro-Bus to the Macro-Grid

  • Structural Contradiction: Maximizing batch efficiency causes memory faults
  • Down-batching Penalty: Preserving memory traps hardware in idling states
  • The Cycle of CapEx: Building redundant facilities that inherit the same flaws
  • The Ecosystem Ceiling: The immediate need for an automated metabolic governor

Note: This creates an acute engineering contradiction. Maximizing batch efficiency causes hardware memory faults, while down-batching traps the system in a high-entropy idling state. This drives a cycle of massive capital expenditure to build redundant hyperscale facilities that inherit the exact same operational flaws.

📊 Section IV: Findings

Introducing the Systemic Volatility Indicator (SVI)

  • Operational Bounding Tool: \[SVI = \max\left(0, \, \frac{B_{roof} - B}{B_{roof}} \cdot \gamma_{grid}\right)\]
  • \(B_{roof}\): Hardware roofline balance threshold
  • \(\gamma_{grid}\): Localized grid utilization ratio relative to institutional caps
  • The Homeostatic Target: Driving the indicator toward absolute zero

Note: To resolve this tension, our architecture implements an automated metabolic governor driven by the Systemic Volatility Indicator, or SVI. This dimensionless metric monitors both real-time micro-architecture utilization and localized utility grid stress, bounding performance based on regional infrastructure health.

📊 Section IV: Findings

SVI Operational States

  • State A: Maximum Volatility (\(SVI \to 1\))
    • Under-batched workloads run during high regional grid stress
    • High eco-debt accumulation for low computational throughput
  • State B: Architectural Homeostasis (\(SVI \to 0\))
    • Saturated batch processing running on balanced energy grids
    • Computation safely buffered by the biophysical ecosystem capacity

Note: The SVI formalizes two core operational states. When under-batched workloads run during peak regional grid stress, the SVI approaches one, signaling severe eco-debt. When the system achieves full batch saturation during off-peak windows, the SVI drops to zero, indicating safe architectural homeostasis.

💬 Section V: Discussion

Restoring the Atom-to-Values Closed Loop

  • Reframing the Paradigm: Shifting from extractive to regenerative governance
  • Internalizing Entropy: Treating waste heat, water, and carbon as liabilities
  • From CSR to RegTech: Real-time engineering metrics replacing static reports
  • Systemic Realignment: Forcing tokenomics to respect finite planetary boundaries

Note: Our reference architecture directly answers our primary research question by shifting the AI infrastructure paradigm from an extractive linear stack to an atom-to-values closed loop. Rather than treating waste heat and thermal entropy as ignored externalities, they are tracked as active balance-sheet liabilities.

💬 Section V: Discussion

Digital Product Passports (DPP) & Material Circularity

  • Tracking Lifecycles: Managing the rapid obsolescence of advanced accelerators
  • Reverse Supply Chains: Auditing e-waste streams and material recovery
  • Regulatory Compliance: Automating adherence to EU CSDDD and CBAM mandates
  • Operational Integration: Linking physical hardware telemetry with policy constraints

Note: By deploying Digital Product Passports and regulatory technology, the reference architecture tracks the entire lifecycle of high-performance components. This allows operators to audit e-waste streams and automate compliance with strict international environmental laws like the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.

💬 Section V: Discussion

Value Creation Centered on Human Needs

  • The Core Anchor: Placing “Values and Needs” at the center of production loops
  • Socio-Ethical Guidance: Adhering to standards of human dignity
  • Supply Chain Auditing: Tracking data labeling, mineral extraction, and labor
  • Resource Sovereignty: Protecting regional civil infrastructure from digital strain

Note: Crucially, our framework centers value creation around real human needs. This allows socio-ethical specifications, such as institutional human rights frameworks, to guide compute deployment. By doing so, it protects regional communities from labor exploitation and defends public civil resource sovereignty.

💬 Section V: Discussion

Engineering Management Checklist

Note: For technology strategists and engineering managers, we translate these insights into a highly practical compliance checklist. Managers must actively align their workloads with local energy community capacities, structurally route facility waste heat, and utilize digital passports to extend accelerator lifecycles.

🏁 Section VI: Conclusion

Framework Limitations & TRL Status

  • Conceptual Stage (TRL 1–2): Pending formal adoption by official IEEE roadmapping bodies
  • Micro-Telemetry Access: Needs deeper integration with proprietary hardware APIs
  • Validation Requirements: Large-scale distributed pilots required to confirm data integrity
  • Future Path: Bridging the gap between conceptual reference models and ground-truth physics

Note: We acknowledge certain limitations in our current work. The framework sits at an early technology readiness level and needs formal integration into standard global industry roadmaps. Future testing must include extensive field validation to ensure metadata integrity across real-world, global supply chains.

🏁 Section VI: Conclusion

Summary of Main Contributions

  • System-of-Systems View: Re-engineered AI infrastructure as an eco-bound system
  • SVI Deployment: Provided a quantified mathematical governor for automated routing
  • Internalized Debt: Formalized ecological footprints as active software constraints
  • Paradigmatic Shift: Moved deep tech thinking from raw compute density to resource parsimony

Note: In conclusion, this study contributes a system-of-systems reference architecture that tethers token generation to planetary boundaries. By introducing the Systemic Volatility Indicator, we prove that ecological debt can be successfully managed as an active software orchestration constraint.

🏁 Section VI: Conclusion

Real-World Friction: The Taiwan Precedent

  • The Reality Check: Taipower’s 2026 data center grid application freezes
  • The Structural Collision: Sovereign AI compute demands meeting binding energy limits
  • The Lesson: Technical efficiency gains cannot bypass biophysical constraints
  • The Imperative: Standardizing circular governance before hitting ecological walls

Note: The real-world urgency of this research is highly visible. Right now, utilities are enforcing strict energy ceilings on new data centers due to grid imbalances. This confirms that technical efficiency gains cannot escape local biophysical limits, highlighting the urgent need for standardized circular governance.

🏁 Section VI: Conclusion

Strategic Roadmap for Future Alliances

  • IEEE Integration: Linking HIR manufacturing tracks with systemic environmental accounting
  • Policy Expansion: Advancing smart city frameworks into smart intelligence networks
  • Final Vision: Deep technologies demand deep systems thinking anchored in planetary realities

Note: Our future work calls for an integrated roadmap across global standards bodies, expanding smart city frameworks into smart intelligence networks. Ultimately, advanced digital technologies require deep systems thinking. To make generative AI truly sustainable, we must govern it within the finite limits of our planet. Thank you.